Horse race wagering: Front-runner, Come-from-behind and Just-off-the-pace horses

I am a professional sports handicapper. I help my clients to make money by sports wagering. To us, sports wagering is less of a gamble than the stock market. I can be reached at 305-461-9206. My performance monitoring page: http://wager.posterous.com

In most races you will have a number of Front-runners, a number of Just-off-the-pace runners, and a number of Come-from-way-behind horses.

Most races have 12 horses running and you will generally get 3 or 4 of each running style in any given race.

This is why every race, like a chess game, is completely unique and probably has never contained the same horses that you will see in any given race.

In other words, just like chess, you are presented in every race with a completely new situation with completely new horses and you have to take into account every fact about every horse in order to properly handicap and analyze the race.

That is what makes horse racing so difficult, so unique, and so fascinating because you are never confronted with the same situation and therefore the conclusion you reach is always unique to that particular race.

In each race, you look at all the facts including the style of running. Fist, you look at each individual horse and then you integrate all your facts and statistics into the future running of the whole race.

For example,  let us take a race where you have a number of Front-runners and also a great number of Come-from-way-behind runners and say only one or two Just-off-the-pace runners.

Now, you must remember, we are only analyzing style of running and there are so many other factors in every race (all included in the Racing Form, which is why it costs $4.00 a copy).

Among other things, you are looking at the style of running.  Let's say, in this particular race there are only 2 Just-off-the-pace runners.

So then, as always, you would look at many other factors. But we're talking about style of running right now. If, in this particular race, you only have 2 Just-off-the-pace runners, for the time being, you look at these 2 horses.

One may have a much faster running time than the other, so naturally, again not taking into account the many other factors, you've already narrowed it down to those horses and now you narrowed it down to one because one has a much faster running time.

So, ignoring other factors, this is how you would expect the race to be run. Let us say, in this race, we have 5 Front-runners and we've narrowed it down to one Just-off-the-pace runner and we have 6 Come-from-way-behind runners.

So, at the opening of the gate, at the start of the race, we would expect the 5 Front-runners to all come charging out running as hard and as fast as they can.

We would expect only that Come-from-just-off-the-pace runner to be stalking the 5 Front-runners anywhere from 1 to 5 lengths behind them in the early part of the race.

We would also have the 6 Come-from-way-behind horses still way behind every other horse in the race.

As the race progresses, after about 3/4ths of the race the 5 Front-runners will be tired from their exertion of running full-out against the other Front-runners and the Just-off-the-pace horse that we are concentrating on (and probably just wagered on) who is fairly rested goes easily to the lead, going past all these 6 tiring Front-runners.

So he gets the lead all alone after the race is about 3/4ths run, he has passed the runners and the Come-from-way-behind runners are still way behind. So at this point, the jockey of the Just-off-the-pace runner digs in, goes to the whip, and the whole idea is to hold off all 6 of the Come-from-way-behind runners as they still have a considerable distance to go to catch him and the race is practically over at this point.

So this is a really good example, again ignoring other factors, where you would place a wager on the only likely Come-from-just-off-the-pace runner. Why? Because the 5 Front-runners have battled each other for 3/4ths of the race and are completely tired out and dropped out of contention completely.

At this point, the Just-off-the-pace runner is all alone and turning for home while the 6 Come-from-way-behind horses try vainly to make up all the ground they need to make up in order to catch the Just-off-the-pace horse and they rarely can do it.

So, this is a good example where you would be inclined to favor the one Just-off-the-pace runner. By process of elimination, and again ignoring every other factor, this horse would have the best chance of winning.

Comments

[Dharmesh Patel]

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[wes patterson]

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I will email you now to discuss the deatils.

[melbourne cup]

any bets on the Melbourne cup?

[Lisa Gilliam]

People who are fond of watching horse races should know these things, even just a bit. Why? Because if the races they do interest you, then you should know how much they’re paid for doing so. Those people who ride horseback entertain and help you win too.

[racing software]

that is so interesting buddy, I have always wanted to become a a professional sports handicapper, by any chance could you give me some useful tips, please?? Thanks in advance!